Will Zambia remove or extend the presidential two-term limit by the end of 2027?

Resolution

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, Zambia legally changes its Constitution or another constitutional provision in a way that allows a person who has already served two presidential terms to seek election to, or serve, another presidential term.

Resolves NO if no such constitutional change has legally taken effect by December 31, 2027.

YES

The market resolves YES if any of the following occurs before the deadline:

• The two-term presidential limit is removed.
• The Constitution is amended to allow a person who has already served two terms to contest another presidential election.
• The Constitution is amended to allow a president to serve more than two terms.
• Another legally effective constitutional change has the practical effect of allowing a person who has already served two terms to seek another term.

The constitutional amendment must have completed all legally required procedures and have legally taken effect.

NO

The market resolves NO if:

• The two-term limit remains in the Constitution at the deadline.
• A proposal or bill has been introduced but has not become law.
• Politicians or political parties call for the removal of the limit but no constitutional change takes effect.
• Parliament debates or passes a proposal but the legally required constitutional process is not completed by the deadline.
• A referendum or other required constitutional procedure has not been completed by the deadline.

Important Clarification

This market does NOT ask whether President Hakainde Hichilema will personally seek a third term.

It asks whether Zambia's constitutional presidential term limit is changed.

A public statement supporting a third term, a political campaign, or a statement by President Hichilema or another politician will not by itself resolve the market YES.

Current Constitutional Position

Article 106(3) of the Constitution provides that:

"A person who has twice held office as President is not eligible for election as President."

The current constitutional framework therefore establishes a two-term limit. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}

Resolution Source

The primary resolution source will be the official Constitution of Zambia and official Government of Zambia or National Assembly records confirming any constitutional amendment.

If there is a dispute about whether an amendment has legally taken effect, the market will use the official legal status of the amendment rather than media reports or political statements.

Deadline

December 31, 2027 at 23:59:59 CAT.

Resolution Examples

YES Example

Parliament and any other constitutionally required bodies complete the amendment process, and a constitutional amendment comes into force allowing a person who has already served two presidential terms to contest another presidential election.

Result: YES

NO Example

UPND officials publicly campaign for the removal of presidential term limits, but the Constitution remains unchanged by December 31, 2027.

Result: NO

NO Example

A constitutional amendment bill is introduced and debated in Parliament but has not legally taken effect by December 31, 2027.

Result: NO

NO Example

The government announces that it intends to remove the two-term limit but no legally effective constitutional amendment is completed before the deadline.

Result: NO